After the information had come out about the meeting of the EU that they didn?t come to a decision about Greece, the dollar was supported for a short time on the trading session on Wednesday. On the European trading session the dollar turned out to be under pressure and then began to decrease against the European currencies till the end of trading session.?It is obvious that optimism returned to market as a result of the fact that the European management left the door open for positive solution of Greece problems, postponing its negotiations on the next Monday. Moreover, risk seeking may appear as a result of announcement of German representatives which stated that they agree to replace existing loans with new loans at a lower rate of interest and to approve the EFSF?s expansion for Athens. The US economic statistics published yesterday contains positive results, but it didn?t influence market. The number of unemployment insurance appeals for the last week remained over 400 thousands, and fixed 410 thousands after 451 thousands before. The Conference Board leading economic index increased by 0.2% in October after +0.5% in September and proved that the economy is continuing to grow moderately. But according to the last estimation by the Michigan University, in November the consumer confidence index decreased to 82.7 from 84.9. Today there will be no news because of the holiday in the USA, Americans celebrate Thanksgiving Day. Exchange markets will be close in the USA and it causes low activity on trading session on Tuesday. Nevertheless, we can?t rule out the possibility of volatility as the European economic statistics will come out with important information.
EUR
On Wednesday the euro fell against the main opponents on the Asian trading session, but it recovered its losses and increased against the dollar and pound in the end of trading day. It turned out that only for a short time investors were influenced by the fact that the Ministers of Finance of the EU couldn?t come to a decision about Greek aid tranche for a short time. To all appearances, traders hopes that Greek problems will be solved next Monday as European officials postpones their meeting to this day. Moreover, the euro could be supported by German, which though doesn?t support writing down Greek loans (the INF insists on it), nevertheless offered to agree to replace existing loans of the Balcan country with new loans at a lower rate of interest and to approve EFSF expansion by 10 milliard euros in order to solve Greece?s financial problems. There were no published economic news in the Euro zone. But today?s economic statistics contains a lot of important information. Preliminary purchasing managers index (PMI) for November for the production and services sphere of the euro zone. It is assumed that th index decreased under 50.0 in all European countries, which may put pressure on the European currency and don?t bring out good mood on market. Moreover, negative mood may be intensified by the consumer confidence index for November, which will be also published today. The forecasts expect its decrease to -26.0 after -25.7 in the previous month.
GBP
British pound also strengthened against the dollar on trading session on Wednesday. It is obvious that under the circumstances of risk seeking the information about the BoE meeting protocol seemed positive, though it told about there are different points of view concerning the quantitative easing program. As it became known, in November at the meeting mangers of the Bank of England discussed expansion of bond buying and voted for remaining volume of bond buying, there were 8 eyes and 1 no, though it had been expected unanimity. To all appearances decisive moment for market was the announcement that the committee ruled out further rates cut and also the announcement of the head of British Central Bank M. King that he is not going to increase the issuing in the nearest future in the time of publication of the inflation rate report. Economic statistics of the islands published yesterday confirmed negative situation of government funds ? UK national debt turned out to be higher than it was estimated by forecast and fixed 8.6 milliards, when it was expected 6 milliard pounds. It questions success of government?s plans to narrow budget deficit. Today the news from Britain will be represented by the report of the Confederation of British Manufacturers (CBI)about production orders in November. It is expected that the index increased to -19 against -23 before. We can?t rule out the possibility that these statistics may support the interest in sterling under the circumstances of the thin market which is the result of the US holiday.
JPY
The USD/JPY currency pair was continuing to decrease on the trading session yesterday and approached to the level higher 82.0 at the first time from Spring these year. It is more likely that the external trade statistics of Japan, which showed the deficit, has risen expectations of further quantitative easing of the Bank of Japan, which influence the currency pairs trading which involve the yen lately. As it is known such expectations has been intensified after the Liberal Democrats Party of Japan, which claims the key role, announced about its goal to fight against deflation and strong national currency on the market. Yesterday the LDP presented its political program according to which they are going to change the law of the Bank of Japan and creation of the fund for foreign bond purchasing. There were no important economic news about the Land of the Rising Sun. The yen will more likely be under influence of political events. Under the circumstances of closed exchange market in the USA and holiday in Japan tomorrow, the market may refrain from the additional risk-taking. Moreover, Greek problems may be solved in Europe at the beginning of the next week.
Source: http://blog.forex4you.com/fundamental-analysis-22-november-2012/
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